Today’s polling in The Australian paints a bleak picture for the Liberal/National Parties (The Australian’s polling is here). It shows the Government has a 55% to 45% lead over the Opposition on the two party preferred vote.

It is unlikely that the Government has such a large lead though; all this polling shows is how volatile the electorate is.

Most people are not in love with either of the major Parties. People are skeptical about Tony Abbott and most are on the edge of their seats waiting for another faux pas, such as the swearing incident during the 2007 election.

People on the street are just as nonchalant about Labor. They are concerned about the plethora of policy mistakes, and they are untrusting of the knife wielding new Prime Minister.

When people are as skeptical as they are right now during this election about both sides of politics they usually fall on the side of the incumbent Government come election day.

At this point I should say this, keep the Chardonnay on the top shelf for now comrades, it’s too early to celebrate on Hajnal’s say-so. History shows incumbent Governments can record large swings against them in their first term. Hawke, and Howard did. In fact both went within a whisker of losing their first elections as PM, even though both had super majorities.

Therein is the problem for this fledgling, limping Government. It is not correct to say the Opposition needs 17 seats to win Government.

Politicos say the Coalition needs 17 seats because of a re-draw in boundaries have made a few seats in Victoria and Queensland appear on paper more Red then Blue (I don’t like the traditional red and blue and think I might change the coloring for this blog....)

Labor is on a knife’s edge, teetering on something like 7 or 8 seats net to be lost to the Coalition before they are in trouble. Labor did not gain a super majority at the 2007 election, it scraped home. Comrades were too drunk from celebrating the win in Bennelong that they seemed to forget how close the last election was.

If the Coalition wins eight seats (leaving a buffer for a rouge independent or the loss of one independent) there are three independents in the house that would most likely support the Coalition with confidence and supply motions.

Keep the Bollinger in the bottom draw for now though Patriots. A post election scenario where the Coalition is propped up by three rural independents is as savoring for Tony Abbott as what negotiating with Barnaby and the Nationals over the sale of Telstra was for John Howard.